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GLOBAL WARMING
"A natural climatic cycle, recently politicized, thus generating many popular myths and lies.


Monday, March 23, 2009

OCEAN CURRENTS DO AFFECT THE WEATHER

OCEAN CURRENTS AFFECT WEATHER AND CLIMATE
There are many ocean currents around the world. Wherever they exist they control weather and climate. When they change climate can change drastically very quickly. Ocean life forms can be disrupted as well as the activities of man. Despite the generally doubtful tone of this blog, I am VERY concerned about changing ocean currents. Whatever the cause, the ramifications are enormous. Thus the following beginner level discussion of many of the major currents. The Southern hemisphere has a lot more water surface than the Northern hemisphere. Therefore, the currents in the Northern hemisphere usually have immediate impact on land. Land where most of Mankind lives. All of the information below can be accessed from a basic meteorological text. However, I have tried to include links on what I think are particularly good sources outside of the classroom. This link displays and excellent chart of the ocean currents of the world.

THE GULF STREAM
There is a current which flows across the Atlantic from the Northern coast of Africa. As it nears the South American continent it veers northward and splits into two main branches. One veers into the Caribbean and the other flows near the West Indies. They reunite near the Florida straits and at that point become the Gulf Stream.

I first became aware of this particular current when I was a 1st Lieutenant in the Air Force. I was stationed at Myrtle Beach Air Force Base on the East coast of the US. I had been named Chief Forecaster of my unit. I busted a forecast so badly that the base general caused orders to be given that I attend satellite meteorology school. My excuse had been, after determining why I had made a bad forecast, was that a system left North Africa two weeks before and ended up busting my forecast (and his flying schedule!). While at that school I learned to track satellites and request photo downloads of the area to the East of the Atlantic seaboard so that I could see systems developing. I watched in awe as a small perturbation in the atmosphere was created on the western side of a range of mountains in North Africa. As it hit the ocean, clouds would intensify. The system would be caught in the Easterly (or Westward) flow of the tropics. The systems would move towards the West caught up in the prevailing air flow. Sometimes they would fizzle out. Other times they would intensify into tropical storms or hurricanes which plague the Southeastern US. Depending on the point in the season they would either continue their westward movement, of coming close to Florida, recurving to the Northwest and continue off to the Northeast. If other conditions were right in the upper atmosphere they would invariably intensify when they hit the Gulf Stream’s warmer waters. A hurricane needs water temperatures, as I recall, of at least 78 degrees F. in order to maintain their strength or to intensify.

I began this posting with the Gulf Stream since it is the world’s strongest ocean current. After the two branches of the current from Africa merge they continue offshore, generally following the coastline of Florida, then by Georgia and South Carolina. The shoreline of North Carolina has a strong out thrust into the ocean. As the current nears this landmass it veers strongly towards the Northeast, passing Newfoundland and eventually by passing the British Isles. I say above that it generally follows the coastline. Sometimes it is well offshore and at others it touches the coast. One of our duties as United States Air Force Meteorologist at Myrtle Beach was to measure the water temperature each week. We used the ultra scientific method of taking a bucket on a rope to the end of the nearest pier extending into the ocean, walking to the end of the pier, dropping the bucket to fill with sea water and then measuring the temperature with a thermometer. During the summers the water was quite warm, often in the eighties. During the winter the water temperature would stabilize around 49 degrees F. However, sometimes during the winter we would suddenly get a weekly reading near seventy degrees F. We knew that the Gulf Stream had veered into the shoreline.

The Gulf Stream averages about sixty miles wide and about 3,300 feet deep and moves at a rate of about five miles per hour. It is sixty times more powerful that the Amazon River! I often fished offshore East of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. We would look for dolphin (Mahi Mahi) around any junk floating on the water, especially large pieces of plywood. The motors would idle as we drifted along with the plywood catching fish. Invariably once we stopped and headed back to port we would be amazed at how far North we had come, drifting along on the world’s strongest ocean current. This current carries a lot of energy from the tropics to the Arctic latitudes in the form of heat. So much energy in fact that consideration and research is being given to harnessing its power. It is estimated that the Gulf Stream has more than one hundred times as much energy as is used on the entire planet.

At the latitudes of the East coast of the US air typically moves from the West to the East. Therefore, as the Gulf Stream passes the Southeastern states dryer air is being pushed over the top of it day and night. The warm water evaporates forming clouds or air heavy laden with water vapor. The surface water becomes more heavily laden with salt and thus denser and heavier than the other waters of the ocean as the dryer air moves on across it and more dry air moves in, each departing with a burden of water. As it travels to the Northeast it begins to cool. The colder, heavier, saline laden water is very dense and sinks. As it sinks it begins a journey southward back down the coast of Europe. The overall effect is to transport heat from the tropics to the Arctic and transport cold water back from the Arctic to near the equator.
This current intensifies tropical storms and causes much destruction to the East and Gulf Coasts of the US. It warms England and gives it a temperate climate. It provides a highway for fish to migrate between Florida and North Carolina. It is like and expressway for Tuna, Marlin and Sailfish. However, it may not be a permanent feature of the planet. In November, 2004 the Gulf Stream stopped flowing for ten days. It just stopped. Scientists are trying to determine why. The examination below of The Labrador Current might offer some clues.

THE KUROSHIO CURRENT
This current runs northward along the coast of Asia and predominates the weather of Japan. It is the second most powerful ocean current on Earth. However, it does not come close to the Gulf Stream in force. It flows at around 2 MPH and is around sixty miles wide. It has a much lesser volume of water than the Gulf Stream. Each year there are reports of terrific typhoons striking Japan. The current has much the same amplification effect that the Gulf Stream does. Its warmer waters allow Japan to have the Northernmost coral reef in the world. It veers to the Northeast and eventually is responsible for the relatively temperate weather enjoyed on Alaska’s South coast.

THE LABRADOR CURRENT
The Labrador Current runs from off the Northeastern United States up into the Arctic. It serves the purpose of bringing relatively warm mid-latitude water (not tropical) up to the often frozen Arctic waters. As it reaches the Arctic and becomes colder and thus denser it begins to sink. Then it runs along the depths of the ocean back South and returns colder water to mix with warmer mid-latitude waters. It serves as a mechanism, as do so many other currents, of redistributing heat around the planet as well as cold (the absence of heat). Air currents do it as described in another post here on "What Causes Weather". These ocean currents are vital to the weather of the planet as we know it.

Some Man Caused Global Warming advocates say that when these currents, particularly the Labrador Current, don’t function properly it is a cause of global Warming. They explain that when there is no return of cold water from the polar regions that the water in the tropics or mid-latitudes gets warmer and warmer. However, I have a problem with this thinking. Once again, I believe they confuse cause with effect. They say that melting sea ice, or water runoff from land caused by rain, or over the water caused by rain, dilutes the salinity of the water, warms it somewhat and prevents it from sinking and returning to the warmer regions. All of these things are true except their conclusion. Their conclusion is that this causes Global Warming. My question is ‘What causes the sea ice to melt in the first place?’ In another post herein I explain that the ice is melting in some areas, a melt caused by undersea volcanoes, due to recently increased activity and eruptions. "What causes the snow melt on land in the first place?’ Maybe Global Warming. ‘What causes the rain in the first place instead of snow?’ Maybe Global Warming and climate change. However, as you follow the writings in this blog you will begin to reach a knowledge level such that you will realize that there are many other causes for all these things. However, don’t’ blame Global Warming on a cycle that is itself caused by Global Warming! It’s an effect, not a cause.... and that is a circular argument. As you read this you will see that many effects of other activity have been blamed as causing Global Warming. Climates have been changing for the past one billion years. The last thousand years of recorded history shows major changes and Mankind not only survived, it flourished through these changes. (See the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period in this blog site.) Lets’ have a little less emphasis on ‘hysteria’ and a little more emphasis on ‘history’. Please. I know the words are similar and likely to confuse a 'Green' so maybe we should give every 'Green' we know a small dictionary.

EL NINO AND LA NINA
The Gulf Stream has a noticeable and profound effect on weather on the Eastern seaboard of the US, England and parts of Scandanavia. However, El Nino and La Nina get all the publicity (maybe because Hollywood is on the West Coast and they like sensational.). The name itself is mysterious and foreign, thus alluring to the United States press. The name is Spanish and El Nino is masculine and La Nina is feminine. What is there not to be appealing to the press? El Nino is when the waters off South America and the Eastern Pacific are particularly cold. La Nina is when the waters off South America and the Eastern Pacific are unusually warm.

Perhaps the press is well deserved. As a fact the current affects weather in the Western United States, Western and Northern South America as well as Indonesia and Australia. Theories credit it with weather changes in Africa and elsewhere. As such it is closely monitored and studied. An array of deep sea buoys stretches from the Western coast of South America across the equatorial Pacific Ocean to monitor this ‘current’. Basically, the current works like this. Near the equator the prevailing winds or Trade Winds are from the East blowing towards the West. As these winds leave Northern South America and blow towards Asia they blow water ahead of them. This eventually strips the layers of warmer water normal to the equatorial waters off Western South America, moves them westward and piles them up near Indonesia. So much so, in fact, that sea levels in the Western Equatorial Pacific Ocean are nineteen inches higher than in the Eastern portions of the ocean. This water has to be replaced. Cold water is drawn in from the Antarctic regions, moving up the coast of South America and eventually up welling towards the surface off Northwestern South America. When the Trade Winds blow strongly the surface layer of warm water is only 75 or so feet deep. When the Trade Winds diminish and don’t blow strongly enough to move all that water the warm surface layer extends downward for over 225 feet.

When the Trade Winds blow strong they cause an increase in rain showers over the Western Pacific, Indonesia, and Australia. Inversely during these periods there are drought conditions over the Western US. When they don’t blow very hard there is more rain or snow activity over the Western US and Northern South America, flooding in Peru, etc. The warmer water temperatures during these periods provide a source of moisture for the Western United States. The cycle of El Nino lasts from one month to one year and can be predicted with a relatively good degree of activity simply by measuring the Trade Winds.

What is left unsaid or ignored is that the winds blowing over the Andes deposit their burden of water on the windward side of the mountains. As the air descends the mountain on the Lee side it dries out drastically. The stronger the wind the stronger the drying effect. The stronger the wind, the stronger the El Nino effect. However, it’s not just due to moving the water across the Pacific and pulling colder water up, less able to cause evaporative rain showers. The air is already tremendously dryer and has a long way to go before it can cause any rain showers. In so far as theories that El Nino wreaks havoc in Africa, it has nothing to do with it. In my humble opinion the same increase in Trade Winds that cause El Nino have also traveled across parts of Africa, surely hitting Africa first. After all they are moving from East to West. If the Trade Winds are increasing in one part of the world that increase will eventually be transferred to all Trade Winds everywhere. Okay which comes first, the chicken or the egg? Which comes first, the havoc in African weather or El Nino? Come on scientists, quit confusing cause with effect. C’mon Greens, quit listening to everything you hear!

This current is one giant heat engine. However, it is caused by winds and is a surface current, not a deep current like the Gulf Stream. If the Trade Winds stop it ceases to become a current. That’s why I waited until last to talk about it. It draws in cold water from near the Antarctic regions to Northern South America, brings it to the surface, and eventually takes some parts of it to Asia, all caused by the prevailing winds.

My only comment on Man Caused Global Warming Advocates in this area is this: They allege that recently (since man began emitting a lot of carbon in the Twentieth Century) El Nino has gone crazy. They go to bed in fear of the cycle. When they meet they speak in whispered tones of El Nino and La Nina, drinking their ‘Chai tea’ or their ‘lattes’, likely feeling proud that they are internationalists by their usage of four foreign words. Well, once more they are wrong.
I have personal experience on a very small but real level that they are wrong and that this cycle has gone on since at least 1600. One of my pleasures in life since moving West in 1984 has been to hike lonely Sierra ridges around Lake Tahoe. The green of the trees contrasted to the deep blue of the Lake and the paler blue sky above is beautiful and awe inspiring. However, the view was not always that way. In the 1860s the area was denuded of trees. All the wood in the Basin was cut to make timbers for the roofs of the silver mines in Virginia City, not far away. Wherever you walk now, 150 years later, there are beautiful trees. However, also visible are the stumps of what must have been massive old growth trees, cut for the mines. One day, out of boredom and simple curiosity I decided to count the rings on one of the massive stumps left. Trees add one ring for each year they live. The tree had been 260 years old when cut. Looking at the rings I could visualize the cycles of drought and water which had plagued that tree since it was a seedling in 1600. The cycles were numerous and offered a snap shot glimpse into the meteorological history of the region....and.... it seemed the droughts were always longer than the wet periods. During droughts, by the way, the rings on the tree’s stump were narrow and packed close together. Not much growth on short water rations. During periods of plenty of water the rings were fat and thick, indication that the tree had good growth that year. Thus, I surmise that this cycle caused by El Nino has been faithfully affecting West Coast weather since at least 1600.

Come on Greens! Preach Global Warming but quit using as boogey men a constant distortion of the facts. As Joe Friday used to say "Just the facts, Ma’am."


SUMMARY
Ocean currents do affect weather all around the globe. Whenever one or more of them change there will be climate change over large areas. If one changes there will likely be others to change since they are all interconnected. El Nino is not connected to Global Warming at all, at least not yet! I can visualize that the currents would change due to Global warming. Guess what? They are also going to change again whenever there is Global Cooling. How are you going to stop that MR and MRS GREEN GODS? Are you going to sell CO2 generators and pump carbon back into the air? Or will you have saved all of that CO2 you took from the air in the 21st Century in a big warehouse somewhere and simply release it? Idiots!


Whew! Sorry! I lost it there for a second. The End for Today.

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